How to Protect You and Yours Against Future Crisis

Although I basically have an optimistic view of humanities capacity to survive and thrive, there will always be some kind of crisis each generation must suffer and conquer.

There are always two sides (at least) to every story and to every prediction. Trends we see developing today could lead to nuclear war, economic failure, collapse of the world’s power grids and loss of many of Mother Earth’s resources. On the other hand, those same trends could lead to greater peace, a cleaner environment, more sustainable power sources and greater opportunity.

My Grandparents lived through the Great Depression and the dust bowl. My parents handled World War II and the cold war. The boomers lived through the Stagflation, the oil embargo, Vietnam, 9/11 and the Great Recession. Generations following will handle different crisis’s and learn different lessons. History will tell their story. One of them may be a privacy loss crisis.

Standing here in America today, looking at an uncertain economic recovery, predictions of a student debt crisis, a trillion dollar plus national debt crisis, a retirement crisis, a health care crisis, and the threat (once again) of nuclear war (this time courtesy of North Korea), we who have been bitten once are twice shy. We look for ways to protect ourselves against future crisis. Are there actions we can take (or avoid) to lessen the impact of possible future crisis events? Can we take those actions in a sane, orderly and economically feasible manner?

No one can predict the future, least of all me. These are just my thoughts and opinions, so please don’t take action on them alone!

What can you do to soften the impact of future crisis?

Stay healthy.

The cost of good healthcare in the US will increase and its availability decline over the next decades. Hospitals are already laying off employees at all levels to compensate for the cost of ‘Obama Care’.

The cost of health insurance will rise and will cover less. You will need to prepare to spend more of your own dollars for the health care and medicine you need. Already, over the counter drugs cannot be purchased with your pre-tax flexible spending account dollars.

Your best bet is to live a life style conducive to good health. Stay slim, exercise and eat healthy. Go for the right preventative care. Line up a network of people who can help you stay in your home as you age, at the best cost possible.

What I am doing: I am exercising each day; attempting to shed 20 pounds this year; getting a colonoscopy (yuk); starting to research elder care options and thinking about where I want to live when older.

Reduce your reliance on other people, institutions and on certain geographic areas.

From your employer to the plumber to the grocer and accountant find ways to handle more things yourself, or at least gain knowledge on how to do so if need be.

Learn how to grow your own vegetables. Learn how to defend yourself and your family and obtain the necessary tools to do so.

Diversify your investments so that if one institution goes down, you can still rely on others. Don’t concentrate everything in one area or one country or one region.

What am I doing: I’ve already learned to garden and have preservation equipment. We have the tools to defend ourselves. I continue to diversify investments using our asset allocation and will buy more gold when prices come down. We have multiple accounts at multiple institutions, and although it sometimes is a pain in the rear, it helps me sleep at night. We also keep a cash stash for emergencies close at hand. We have real estate in two different areas and our descendants are also spread out geographically.

Build alliances.

Although it seems counter to reducing your reliance on others, you do also need to build alliances. People always seem to accomplish more working together than they do working alone. Find people at work, in the church, in the community and in the government that you can help and be helped by. Find people that can teach you and that you can teach. Find people with insider information that you can use (legally) to learn what is coming and prepare for it and share information you have with others.

What am I doing: I need to do better here. I have started serving as our condo association secretary, I do have contacts from my last job and we do know several of our neighbors. I also am part of an online network which provides some specific information and knowledge about online stuff.

Be prepared for loss of goods and services.

Although unlikely, it is possible that future events could disrupt the world wide flow of goods and services. What if, on your trip to the grocery stores, the shelves were bare? What if the fresh fruits and vegetables you like to eat during winter, the ones grown in South America, can’t be found? What if you have no power, no water, no natural gas and no gasoline for your car?

Survivalists, in my opinion, go overboard to prepare for this situation. They may have the last laugh, but we should all be prepared for at least a temporary disruption of the supply lines. Our own government has been telling us that for years. Since they don’t usually like to incite fear in the population, I’m betting there are reasons they aren’t divulging for telling us that. Yes it does make common sense, but if we knew the full story would we be hearing how close we have come to that situation multiple times?

What am I doing: I keep water and food and an emergency bag at the ready. I have planted fruit trees and blueberry bushes and have read up on local and natural remedies and edibles. We have candles and kerosene lamps, matches, camp-stoves and heaters, tents and cots. There is a stream running through our land as well. We have wood for heat. We both have bicycles for transportation if needed. I’d like to have a well, a generator, a wood burning furnace that doesn’t require electricity, a root cellar, an ice house and an outhouse!

Be flexible.

You may need to become a citizen of the world, instead of just one country. You might find it necessary to move due to lack of a job, lack of opportunity, unfit living conditions, war, disease or any of a thousand other reasons.

You may need to quickly learn new skills and obtain new knowledge and experience to earn a living.

You may need to rely on your own knowledge, or physical books in your possession instead of the internet. The internet is currently under attack from people and groups across the world. Bringing down the servers, sat elites, cables and programs that make it work would cause great disruption.

What am I doing: We have lots of how to books on the shelves. I’m learning new online skills every day and I’m trying to think outside my box to look ahead at future possibilities – good and bad.

Do you take steps to avoid an unknown and uncertain future crisis? What do you think that crisis will be and how are you preparing for it?

Retirement Plan Required Distribution Strategies

Rare people with pensions today are lucky in more ways than one. In my experience, with a pension you are paid a certain amount of money, usually monthly and the pension usually has a cost of living increase feature. Pensions are simple for the pensioner to figure out. They just have to decide if they want taxes withheld and if they want to take advantage of any survivor annuity clause. Then they just set up their automatic deposit to the bank and the money rolls in. Nice.

Of course if the pensioner dies and his/her spouse has passed along, there usually are no further payments. Any money you originally contributed may be paid out to your hers, but that is probably a relatively small amount.

IRAs and 401Ks can be more complicated when you are trying to figure out how to draw out your money. There are as many scenarios as there are people in the plans, and each scenario may benefit from different draw down strategies.

My scenario.

In my case, I have a traditional IRA, funded from a 401k roll over when I took early retirement, and none of the funds have ever had taxes withheld. We are lucky in that we anticipate no actual need from the funding, but I will have to start taking distributions in 7 years – because Uncle Sam will charge me a fee if I don’t (required minimum distributions start at age 70 ½ and the amount you have to take out depends on your life expectancy and the amount you have in all retirement plans except Roths and pensions).

Since we don’t anticipate needing to use the funds to live, at least one of my decisions may be a bit easier. Unless there is a tax advantage family wide to taking more, I plan to withdraw as little as possible and let the rest continue to accumulate tax free.

So what do I think is so complicated?

What goal to set for the IRA money.

This really isn’t too complicated, just potentially subject to change depending on what happens during the rest of my life!

For now, the goal for the IRA money is to grow it and pass it along to the kids and grand-kids  with perhaps a small portion of it used to provide funding for special events and projects for myself and my spouse.

Later, however, if either of us requires long term care, it will be used to fund that for as long as needed or until the money runs out.

What is the best family wide tax strategy.

If I minimize my own tax burden, will it add to that of my heirs?  How can I find the best tax strategy for the family as a whole?

Do some Roth conversions now before higher tax bracket time?

We are in the lowest tax bracket now that we probably will ever be. I am over 59 ½ so it may make sense for me to convert a portion of the funds from the traditional IRA to the Roth IRA. That way, we pay a lower tax, don’t have to take distributions from the Roth and I can leave it to my Grandchildren who can withdraw tax free over their life expectancy. I know my accountant figures this out for his own Dad every year, and I think I would want the accountant’s help in figuring out how much to withdraw without putting us at risk for additional tax rates and penalties.

When should I start taking Social Security?

If I start taking social security when I am at full retirement age (as I now plan to do), when I start taking IRA distributions as well, it may bump us to a higher bracket. Should I hold off on Social Security until I’m 70 to execute some Roth conversions and stay in our lower bracket and get more money?  OR perhaps I should get the money fast in case I die young.  Perhaps I should take it and gift the kids with it to get it out of my estate so they don’t have to pay estate taxes on my death.

If my spouse dies before me, the annuity from his pension comes to me but in a reduced amount and I may need the Social Security or IRA withdrawals to help with my living expenses. If I die first, his pension amount will go up, which is good, since he is not eligible to benefit from my Social Security.

How to allocate the investments within the account.

Many people think that if you are over 60 you should keep your money in cash or bonds to be ‘safe’ from market downturns. But with the possibility of living another 20 or 30 years; and the (in my mind) very real possibility of increased inflation rates once the Fed removes quantitative easing, I disagree.

However, that said, I don’t want to risk having all of the money in products that fluctuate a lot. I don’t want to be forced to sell at a loss in order to get the money for the taxes on the distribution (I plan to use withdrawals to fund the extra taxes, even though we could pay them from taxable accounts if needed).

What I think I may need in the IRA account are multiple different asset classes (bonds, stocks of different types, mutual funds and even some REITS – as well as a bit of cash, perhaps enough to handle a year’s tax on that years distribution. That way, I could take the withdrawal partly in cash and partly as in-kind stock (so I am told). I currently have dividend paying stocks, quite a few international mutual fund shares, some bond funds and some cash in there).

Which investments should I actually use for the withdrawals?

This decision will probably need to be made each year as I prepare for that year’s minimum required distribution, depending on market conditions and the state of the companies in which I have invested. I’ll also need to decide if I want the entire year’s distribution at the start of the year or if I want to spread the withdrawals over the entire year.

Have you faced any of these decisions? What other things should I be considering for the situation described?

What Are Non Traditional Mutual Funds?

The latest issue of the Merrill Lynch ‘Advisor’ magazine (which I receive as a Merrill Wealth Management client) says:

“If you’ve been curious about hedge funds but felt they weren’t quite right for you, you might want to consider nontraditional mutual funds (NTMFs)”

Since I hadn’t heard of NTMFs yet, I thought that maybe you readers haven’t either. What are non traditional mutual funds, when did they come about and should you really consider them?

What are non traditional mutual funds? Continue reading

Too Poor for a Private Bank? No Worries, Use the Next Best Thing.

Did you know that there are institutions which cater to the very rich? Of course you did. But you probably haven’t encountered private banking. They have been around for a while and offer their services – usually by invitation only – to folks with $10 million or more in net worth. In return they provide access to things such as alternative investments, financing for airplanes, art collecting, gold purchases and storage as well as providing some of the personal concierge type services offered in multi or single family offices.

Are you too poor for a private bank? I sure am. Don’t worry though, you get another shot. If you are part of the top 10% – having a net worth between around $250,000 and $1 million you are the target for eager banks of all sizes. You are part of the ‘mass affluent’ and are highly sought after by banks such as Chase Private Client, Bank of America and Citigroup. These banks are being (believe it or not) squeezed out of squeezing you for fees by new regulations and are trying to make up revenue by gathering in the mighty assets of the mass affluent. Continue reading